Okay, so the title of this post is a bit of a lie. I definitely did not go to the movies as much as I should have in preparation for this year’s Oscar ceremony, which airs tonight. With that being said, I’m not sure how much my opinion on who should win the big awards tonight matters, but as in all things TV and movie related, I’ve done a lot of reading up on this year’s nominees. So here are my thoughts on who should win and my predictions on who could win.
BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
Who should win: Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
There’s something kind of sweet and simply stated about this movie that makes it perfection in a way and I think that’s a credit to its writing. This is a better movie than the attention it’s getting, but that’s typical with indies. It’s a very long shot for Best Picture or Best Actress but I wish people would give it the credit it deserves with a win here.
Who could: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
I didn’t like this movie quite as much as others did, maybe because I was tired when watching it or maybe because it just didn’t connect with me. However, I do think one of the best things about it was its script. With that being said, I’d be okay with a win for it here. I don’t think it’s going to take Best Director or Best Director and Best Screenplay is usually a consolation prize when there’s a lot of buzz that doesn’t translate into a win for those categories. However, I think Lincoln or Argo could potentially take this with Affleck not getting a directing nod and with Lincoln being Lincoln.
BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
Who should win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Are there ever any points for creativity where screenplays are concerned? Probably not with this Academy. Nonetheless, being someone who isn’t completely enamored with Wes Anderson movies, I really found this script and story refreshing and different. Wes Anderson is too cool for the Academy, so his nomination is the award, but maybe recognizing achievements such as Anderson’s would bring the Oscars the younger audience that they have desperately been craving.
Who could win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Tarantino is a controversial figure because of the violent nature of all of his films but he still earns the respect of voters everywhere. Being that I’m not a Tarantino fan (more so because of the violence than of the quality of his work) I haven’t looked up much about this movie. Despite not being the status quo, Tarantino managed to grab this prize for Pulp Fiction in 1994, and he could potentially do it again here.
Who should win: Ben Affleck, Argo
Yeah, yeah. I know he’s not even nominated in this category, but prior to the nominations, Ben Affleck was getting so much buzz for his work on Argo. His failure to get a nomination here is probably the biggest snub this year and likely one of the biggest in recent history. Almost everyone agrees that he is three for three in directing. His win at the Golden Globes is a consolation prize, but that doesn’t take away from the sting from not getting a nomination here. A win for Best Picture might though.
Okay, should I pick an actual person from this category? I’ll go with Benth Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Great performances by a cast not accustomed to acting. That’s top notch directing in my book.
Who could win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
This is a tough one to call when you have powerhouse Steven Spielberg in the mix and David O. Russel, whose Silver Linings Playbook is getting so much buzz. But everyone is talking about the beautiful way Life of Pi was filmed. Ang Lee has a knack for making beautiful movies (please see Brokeback Mountain–no, seriously, if you haven‘t seen it, please do, it’s beautiful) and I think that could carry him to the big prize this year. With that being said, Steven Spielberg could definitely still take this one.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Who should win: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
He’s here because I don’t normally like Robert DeNiro, yet he made me enjoy a movie that I wasn’t enjoying as much as I thought I would. Does that make any sense? Probably not. His character and performance worked, and for me he kind of became the heart of the film. I still have hope he’s going to take this, but he just might be edged out.
Who could: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
I’m not a fan of Tommy Lee Jones. I can’t explain why, but there it is. I think of everyone in the category, Jones has been getting the most buzz in a movie that has been getting buzz since before it was released. Still, with every actor in this category being a previous Oscar winner, this one could be a pretty tight race.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Who should win: Amy Adams, The Master
I love Amy Adams and I want her to win an Oscar. I know nothing about The Master, but I stand by my ‘should win’ for Amy. She will be my ‘should win’ until she actually wins Oscar gold. She’s my new Kate Winslet. That is all.
Who could win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Anne Hathaway is a lock here. Again, I haven’t seen this one, but I can’t look up Oscar news without reading about her one take performance. I like Anne, but I have recently been hearing that she has her haters. In any event, I’d be happy to see her win and if she doesn’t it would be one of the biggest Oscar upsets in history. I think the only more sure fire win than one for Hathaway is a win for my pick below.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Look, There Will Be Blood is a long, drawn out, sometimes boring movie. But, I’d watch it again just for Day-Lewis’ performance. He was amazing, and I’d guess that when/if I do see Lincoln, I will not love the movie but I will love the performance by its star. He embodies his roles like no other, and he deserves respect for that.
Who could win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Nothing much to say here. If he doesn’t win, it will not be one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history, it will be the biggest upset in Oscar history.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Who should win: Naomi Watts, The Impossible
I think a lot of people are saying that Jessica Chastain probably should win this but won’t because of Zero Dark Thirty’s controversial nature. But people who have seen The Impossible are coming out of the woodwork to praise Naomie Watts’ gut-wrenching performance. So I have to say, of all the buzz movies I haven’t seen, The Impossible has moved to the top of my list. But it’s an indie and, like I said before, it’s hard to break through that. I’d be shocked if she snatched this from Lawrence, but it’d be kinda nice if she did.
Who could win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
I think this has become Lawrence’s to lose. If Jessica Chastain wasn’t in such a controversial film, she might have a shot but word on the street is that the nature of the film kept Kathryn Bigelow from getting a Best Directing nod. With that being said, Chastain or even Emmanuelle Riva could pull an upset, but I’d be surprised if they did.
Who should win: Lincoln
Look just because it has that Oscar movie feel doesn’t mean it shouldn’t win. It’s a typical choice for Oscar, but that doesn’t make it a bad choice. I’ll admit that when I first saw the preview for Lincoln on TV, I thought it was a joke. With that being said, I’ve heard a lot of praise from pretty much everyone who has seen it. It’s deserving and it was on the Oscar win course, but…
Who could win: Argo
The lack of a directing nod for Ben Affleck has led to a buildup of support for Argo getting the Best Picture win. I think it’s still close between Argo and Lincoln (the epitome of Oscar bait) but Ben Affleck’s loss in the directing category may prove to be his gain in winning the coveted big prize in the movie industry. If Argo pulls this off, Affleck will likely be more than happy to have made the sacrifice.
Well, that’s all folks! Enjoy Oscar night! Did your picks win??